Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, finishing ahead of left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but short of an outright majority. With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47% to Lula’s 45%, and the two will meet in a run-off on 25 October.
The result beat expectations, as Lula had polled slightly ahead during the campaign. Several of the candidates eliminated on Sunday were right-wing alternatives, which leaves Bolsonaro well placed for the second round. His Liberal Party (PL) also won the most governor, Senate and federal deputy seats declared so far and is expected to be the strongest force in Congress. Most of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration, and the run-off will decide whether the region’s largest country and economy follows.
Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election and who backed Flávio to run in his place. Flávio has pledged an amnesty for his father and for supporters involved in the riots of 8 January 2023, along with a public debt ceiling, spending cuts, a revision of social welfare and new maximum-security prisons. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term and has built his record on welfare programmes such as Bolsa Família and on reducing deforestation in the Amazon.
Lula admitted he had expected to win outright and called the outcome “unexpected”, but said the contest was far from over. Bolsonaro said he was very happy to have finished first and was confident of winning in three weeks. In Washington, President Donald Trump said he expected the run-off to be very close but described Bolsonaro’s first-round performance as a big victory.
Relations with the US have shaped the race. Lula made sovereignty a central campaign theme and at times accused Washington of trying to influence the election, which the US denies, and the head of Brazil’s supreme electoral court said on Sunday that no evidence of foreign interference had been found. Corruption, crime and the economy were also major issues for voters. A scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro has reached figures across the political spectrum, and Bolsonaro has acknowledged asking Vorcaro to fund a biopic about his father.
