Confidence in Scotland’s economy is on the rise, according to new figures suggesting that businesses across the country are preparing to invest and expand despite a still-challenging trading environment. Scottish firms expect to increase investment by 12 percent over the next year, the highest figure of any UK region and almost 8 percentage points above the national average.
The underlying sentiment is strikingly positive. Some 92 percent of Scottish firms surveyed reported confidence in their own business prospects, a level of optimism that points to a willingness to plan beyond the immediate pressures of costs and demand. That readiness to look ahead, rather than simply weather the moment, is one of the clearer signs that the mood is shifting.
Access to finance appears to be improving alongside that confidence, at least for larger companies. The value of large corporate loans in Scotland rose 10.3 percent, while the number of such loans climbed 18.3 percent, indicating that bigger firms are both seeking and securing funding to support their plans. Barclays, which compiled the figures, said it had made 22 billion pounds available for business lending across the UK in 2026.
The optimism is spread across a range of sectors rather than concentrated in one. Hospitality and venues, the creative industries, professional services, transport and tourism all featured in the picture of a broadening recovery, a mix that reflects the diversity of the Scottish economy and suggests the confidence is not resting on a single pillar.
There are caveats. Sentiment surveys measure intention rather than outcome, and a plan to invest can be shelved if conditions worsen. Cashflow pressures and wider economic uncertainty have not disappeared, and the gap between expecting to invest and actually doing so is where many good intentions falter.
Still, the direction of travel matters. After a prolonged stretch in which caution dominated, businesses signalling that they intend to spend and grow is a meaningful change in tone. As the figures put it, sustainable growth depends on firms of different sizes, sectors and regions having the confidence and support to invest.
For Scotland, leading the UK on investment intentions is an encouraging marker, even if it is only a starting point. The test now is whether the confidence captured in the survey translates into real spending, new jobs and lasting expansion over the year ahead, or whether the familiar pressures pull those plans back down to earth.
